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This summer, Alaska鈥檚 Mount Spurr volcano made headlines when increased seismic activity, rapid ground inflation and unusual gas emissions raised concerns that an eruption could be imminent. Located approximately 80 miles west of Anchorage, Mount Spurr is one of the region鈥檚 most closely monitored volcanoes due to its proximity to populated areas and its eruption history. As activity remained elevated and scientists kept close watch, 色情网站 geological sciences term assistant professor Skye Kushner, Ph.D., was among the researchers venturing into the field to investigate what, exactly, was going on beneath the surface.

鈥淚鈥檝e been helping wherever I can,鈥� said Kushner. 鈥淭here are so many people at the (AVO) constantly monitoring signals and working on public messaging in addition to monitoring 52 other active volcanoes in the state 鈥� it puts a lot of stress on human capital. So I鈥檝e joined several gas flights to support that effort, which is my area of research.鈥�

These flights, conducted via helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, carry specialized instruments directly through and beneath the volcanic plume to measure the types and amounts of gases being emitted. Kushner explains that the proportion of gases like sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide can reveal what鈥檚 happening deep underground, often miles below the Earth鈥檚 surface. A spike in carbon dioxide, for example, may indicate a new magma body is rising.

For Mount Spurr, those gas flights were revealing. Following an increase in seismic activity, this summer researchers were surprised to measure approximately 400 tons per day of the volcanic gas sulfur dioxide 鈥� an order of magnitude higher than has been measured in previous years. That, along with increased carbon dioxide, suggested a possible shallow magma intrusion. At the same time, the volcano鈥檚 summit began melting, forming a new lake and signaling heightened thermal activity. Combined with a notable six centimeters of ground inflation and an uptick in volcanic earthquakes starting last fall, these changes prompted the AVO to raise Mount Spurr鈥檚 alert level from green (background) to yellow (advisory) earlier this year.

The significance of these flights 鈥� and Kushner鈥檚 contributions 鈥� reached a national audience when a photo he captured during one of the testing excursions was featured in . The image offered a rare, firsthand look at the dramatic conditions unfolding above Mount Spurr and underscored the stakes of the scientific work happening on the ground and in the air.

By late spring, the immediate threat appeared to lessen. 鈥淥ver the last several months, things have kind of petered down,鈥� said Kushner. Earthquake frequency and inflation rates began to level off. 鈥淏oth of these are very good signs that might point toward an eventual non-eruption. That being said, everything鈥檚 still up in the air. Nothing鈥檚 ever a done deal with these types of systems.鈥�

Even with sophisticated instrumentation and years of study, volcanoes remain notoriously difficult to forecast 鈥� especially in Alaska, where many are remote and under-monitored. Mount Spurr, while closer than most, has only three major historical data points: eruptions in 1953 and 1992, and a period of heightened activity in the early 2000s that ultimately didn鈥檛 lead to an eruption. That limited historical precedent makes interpreting new signs of unrest a high-stakes challenge.

鈥淚t鈥檚 kind of like the opposite of weather forecasting. If you check tomorrow鈥檚 forecast, it's usually pretty accurate. But if you check the forecast for two weeks from now, it鈥檚 less accurate,鈥� explained Kushner. 鈥淰olcanologists aren鈥檛 as good at telling you what's going to happen immediately. But we're very good at long-term forecasting. Spurr may likely erupt in the next 30 years. But whether or not Spurr is going to erupt in the next week, we're not as sure because we don't have a huge amount of historical data to rely on. For other volcanoes that erupt more frequently than Spurr, you know what to expect and it's a lot easier to categorize and understand the types of signals and data that鈥檚 coming in.鈥�

Specializing in gas geochemistry, Kushner鈥檚 own research aims to strengthen future monitoring capabilities. In addition to assisting the AVO, he conducts original testing on mercury emissions from volcanoes 鈥� an under-explored aspect of volcanic gas release. His goal is to quantify the levels of mercury that enter the atmosphere during volcanic activity, adding to our knowledge of both environmental impact and subsurface processes.

鈥淪ulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, water 鈥� these are all pretty well understood,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut there are also trace metal emissions 鈥� lead, arsenic, copper, mercury. These can have real effects on the immediate environment, and we don鈥檛 really have a good idea of how much of these things are coming out.鈥�

To gather volcanic gas data, Kushner is helping establish permanent monitoring networks at high-interest sites like Mount Cleveland in the Aleutians. Because Mount Cleveland erupts more regularly than Mount Spurr, it offers an ideal testing ground for continuous gas measurement systems. The hope is that what鈥檚 learned there can be applied statewide, including to Mount Spurr.

鈥淭here are continued discussions about how to incorporate gas monitoring into existing AVO networks,鈥� said Kushner. 鈥淔or Spurr, one idea is installing a direct sampling instrument closer to the summit so we can get gas data without needing a helicopter every time. It鈥檚 just really difficult. There are a lot of environmental factors that you need to contend with.鈥�

For now, as activity at Mount Spurr settles and the alert level remains at yellow, Kushner and his colleagues continue to watch, measure and prepare. Whether the volcano stays quiet or builds toward something more dramatic, the work happening behind the scenes 鈥� sampling invisible gases, analyzing shifting rock and building networks 鈥� is essential.

鈥淎laska is a really interesting and cool place to study volcanoes,鈥� said Kushner. 鈥淭here are 53 historically active volcanoes in the state. There are several major- to medium-sized eruptions every year, and a lot of those happen with an amount of monitoring. It's just they are all in very remote locations, so things are harder to see or quantify. Very little research has been done on huge swaths of the volcanoes in this state compared to other places where volcanoes are more accessible. Maintaining the networks we have requires constant labor that goes unnoticed. So if I鈥檓 ever needed to go on a plane again, then I鈥檓 on board.鈥�